The newly released FBI data shows that reported violent crime (murder, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault) fell by 3.5% in 2023, but they have revised the 2022 data to show a 4.5% increase. However, it should be compared to the Bureau of Justice Statistics data, which showed 4.1% increase in reported serious violent crime in 2023 (rape, robbery, and aggravated assault, but even though murder isn’t included, it covers only about 1 percent of reported violent crimes and even less of total violent crimes). The original 2022 FBI data is available here for comparison.
What do these percentage changes mean in terms of the number of crimes?
A net increase of 80.029 more violent crimes, 1,699 more murders, 7,780 more rapes, 33,459 more robberies, and 37,091 more aggravated assaults.
Shockingly, the FBI’s September press release with the 2023 data doesn’t mention the changes to earlier data and that the original drop in violent crime for 2022 was now an increase. Nor did they mention that the new reported increase in 2022 was larger than the claimed decrease in 2023.
USA Today’s headline on the new FBI reported crime data claims “Violent crime dropped for second straight year in 2023, including murder and rape.” There are two errors in their headline. First, that it is the FBI’s measure of reported crime that fell, but that is not the same as all crime nor is it the only measure of reported crime. So they could have written, the FBI’s measure of reported violent crime fell in 2023. The second error is that they are wrong claiming that this was the second straight year, where an adjustment in the data showed a 4.5% increase in 2022. Originally, the FBI said that violent crime had fallen by 2.1% and now they say it increased by 4.5%. Just like the Bureau of Labor Statistics overestimated the number of jobs created.
Similar headlines are shown across the media. For example,
Newsweek: “Violent Crime Dropped in 2023 Despite Trump Saying Crime ‘Through the Roof’“
NPR: “Crime in the U.S. fell in 2023, FBI data show“
Washington Post: “With crime on the election agenda, FBI gives final 2023 crime stats“
Associated Press: “FBI finds violent crime declined in 2023. Here’s what to know about the report“
CBS: “FBI report shows decrease in violent crime, increase in motor vehicle theft in 2023“
The NBC report even uses the change in murders and not the change in the murder rate, possibly because the drop in murders is larger than the drop in the murder rate.
None of these stories mention that less than two weeks ago the Bureau of Justice Statistic’s National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) showed a 55% increase in serious violent crime (rape, robbery, and aggravated assault) that most closely matches the FBI data since 2020 and a 19% increase since 2019. The news media ignored the NCVS data when it was just released less than a couple of weeks ago.
With the FBI reported crime data, reported violent crime rate fell by 5.8% from 2020 to 2023, it was essentially flat from 2019 to 2023 (-0.2%). Meanwhile, while murder fell by 16.2% from 2020 to 2023, it is still above the pre-COVID levels by 9.6%. Though the latest homicide data from the Centers for Disease Control shows that the murder rate was higher in 2022 than in 2020.
| Year | Percent Change in NCVS Reported Violent | Percent Change in FBI Reported Violent |
| 2008 | -3.30% | -3.52% |
| 2009 | -16.90% | -5.57% |
| 2010 | 1.00% | -5.18% |
| 2011 | 12.10% | -5.44% |
| 2012 | 3.60% | -0.39% |
| 2013 | -7.80% | -4.54% |
| 2014 | -13.20% | -1.81% |
| 2015 | -6.50% | 2.42% |
| 2016 | 0.00% | 3.87% |
| 2017 | 7.00% | -2.66% |
| 2018 | 7.60% | -1.51% |
| 2019 | -13.10% | -1.73% |
| 2020 | -23.30% | 6.01% |
| 2021 | 13.60% | -6.58% |
| 2022 | 29.30% | 4.49% |
| 2023 | 4.10% | -3.53% |
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