Dr. John Lott has a new op-ed at Real Clear Politics.
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On Thursday, California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) commuted every death sentence in the state, following Joe Biden’s lead just before leaving office. The action covers all 548 people on California’s death row. In his letter, Newsom said he “morally” cannot kill them – even those he called the “worst of the worst” – and that the death penalty “cannot be fairly applied and has resulted in the conviction of innocent people.”
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Concerns about executing the innocent lack strong evidence. Between 1989 and 2014, DNA evidence was available in about 12,000 murder cases. The Innocence Project identified 34 people who were wrongly convicted, including 18 who sat on death row. None of them were executed. In more recent cases, the rate of wrongful convictions has fallen further, because settled cases rarely receive new DNA analysis.
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Newsom points to no specific cases among those he commuted that he believes might involve innocence. Many of the people involved are, in fact, among the worst offenders. Examples include:
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— Chester Turner: A prolific serial killer convicted of 14 murders of women in Los Angeles (including one unborn child). DNA later linked him to additional killings. He received multiple death sentences.
— Lonnie Franklin (“the Grim Sleeper”): Serial killer convicted of 10 murders (nine women and one teenage girl) in Los Angeles. Authorities suspected he may have killed up to 25 or more people.
— Charles Ng: Convicted with Leonard Lake of 11 murders (and suspected of many more) at a remote cabin in the Sierra Nevadas. He built a concrete bunker designed to imprison, torture, and video-record victims.
— Isauro Aguirre: Convicted in 2017 of torturing and murdering his girlfriend’s 8-year-old son, Gabriel Fernandez. Aguirre tortured the child for more than seven months before beating him so severely he died with a fractured skull and broken ribs. The abuse included shooting him with a BB gun, burning his genitals and forcing him to eat cat feces.
— Rodney James Alcala (“the Dating Game Killer”): Sentenced to death for five California murders and suspected of killing dozens of women and girls across multiple states.
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Other people on death row had also committed sexual assaults of children and acts of horrific torture.
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“It’s horrible,” Jonathan Hatami, the deputy Los Angeles district attorney and child abuse prosecutor who prosecuted the Aguirre case. Hatami pointed out that Newsom claimed he was honoring the victim but asked: “Did you even name one victim in your letter?”
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The death penalty also serves practical purposes. Without the credible threat of execution, prosecutors lose a powerful tool to encourage defendants to negotiate. Accused mass murderers repeatedly choose life without parole to avoid the risk of death. In 2025, Bryan Kohberger, charged with the 2022 murders of four University of Idaho students, accepted life in prison rather than risk the death penalty, just weeks before his trial. Other killers have made similar calculations:
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— Patrick Crusius, who murdered 23 people in a racially motivated 2019 shooting at an El Paso Walmart, sought a plea deal in March 2025 that spared him execution.
— Jared Lee Loughner, who murdered six people and wounded 13 others (including Rep. Gabrielle Giffords) in 2011.
— Eric Rudolph, responsible for the 1996 Atlanta Olympics bombing and other attacks.
— Francisco Oropeza, who murdered five neighbors in Texas in 2023.
— Joseph James DeAngelo Jr. (the “Golden State Killer”), who pleaded guilty in 2020 to 13 murders and multiple rapes to avoid execution and received 11 consecutive life sentences without parole.
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Still others tried, unsuccessfully, to trade guilty pleas for life sentences: James Holmes (2012 Aurora theater shooting, 12 dead and 70 injured) and Dylann Roof (2015 Charleston church shooting, nine dead). Nidal Hasan also sought to avoid the death penalty through a guilty plea, but military rules blocked the arrangement he wanted.
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These cases show a consistent pattern: Even killers who demonstrate little regard for their victims’ lives often fight hard to protect their own. Critics say capital punishment costs too much. Yet the threat of execution can produce plea agreements that avoid expensive trials and lengthy appeals. When defendants waive appeal rights as part of those deals, taxpayers avoid further legal costs. In Francisco Oropeza’s case, the county district attorney estimated that a capital trial could cost up to $2 million before appeals.
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Research also points to a deterrent effect. Most peer-reviewed studies estimate that each execution prevents between eight and 18 murders. If an execution prevents even eight murders, those lives have value.
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Although many Democrats oppose the death penalty, a 2026 Pew Research survey shows Americans support it by more than a 2-to-1 margin. A Rasmussen survey also found stronger support when respondents considered more timely executions. Lower-income Americans, who often face greater exposure to violent crime, express particularly strong support.
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The debate should weigh not only the lives of convicted murderers but also the innocent lives the death penalty saves. The willingness of even the most brutal killers to accept life in prison rather than face execution shows how much they fear that punishment. Removing the death penalty would discard a tool that can both save innocent lives and reduce the cost of bringing murderers to justice.
John R. Lott, Jr., “Newsom’s Death Penalty Decision Puts Justice on Death Row,” Real Clear Politics, November 7, 2026.
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