John Lott, president of the Crime Prevention Research Center and former senior advisor for Research and Statistics in the U.S. Department of Justice, told The Washington Stand that if the trend continues, the country will experience the lowest ever murder rate it’s ever seen under President Donald Trump.
“That would bring the murder rate down to about 3.3 per 100,000. The lowest previous [rate] before the Trump administration was 4.5,” Lott said. . . .
John Lott, president of the Crime Prevention Research Center and former senior advisor for Research and Statistics in the U.S. Department of Justice, told The Washington Stand that if the trend continues, the country will experience the lowest ever murder rate it’s ever seen under President Donald Trump.
“That would bring the murder rate down to about 3.3 per 100,000. The lowest previous [rate] before the Trump administration was 4.5,” Lott said.
Major cities such as Washington D.C. and Philadelphia have both seen crime rates lowered.
Homicides in D.C. are down 43.9% from the first half of 2025, while homicides in Memphis lowered 43.7%, killings are down 38.3% in Houston, and down 27.2% in Philadelphia.
Additionally, homicides in Newark fell 64.7%, while murders in Raleigh fell 63.6% as well.
“If you want to reduce crime, you have to make it risky for three months to go and commit crime. That means higher arrest rates, higher conviction rates, longer prison sentences,” Lott noted. . . .
A new report from the Crime Prevention Research Center tries to cut through the politics by digging into the FBI’s latest homicide data.
The findings cover where murders happen, who commits them, who the victims are, and how often murders cross racial lines.
Some of the numbers may surprise you. One of the biggest takeaways is just how concentrated murder is in the United States.
As we discussed earlier this week, the worst 1% of counties account for 41% of all murders while containing only about 20% of the country’s population.
Expand that to the worst 2% of counties, and they account for 54% of murders despite making up just 30% of the population.
On the flip side, most counties rarely see a homicide at all.
More than half of U.S. counties—53%—recorded zero murders in 2024. Another 16% had just one.
Together, those counties make up 69% of all counties in America but account for only 3% of the nation’s murders.
The report also looks at who is committing those murders.
According to the FBI data analyzed by the CPRC, Black offenders accounted for 56.4% of known murderers in 2024.
Lott notes the FBI’s race data combines Hispanic and non-Hispanic White offenders into a single “White” category.
He argues likely under-states the number of Hispanic offenders because ethnicity isn’t reported consistently across jurisdictions.
This infographic summarizes key findings from a Crime Prevention Research Center analysis of FBI homicide data, including offender demographics, age distribution, and how each group’s share of known murderers compares with its share of the U.S. population.
The ratio is meant to answer one simple question: Is this group represented among known murderers more or less often than its share of the population?
If every demographic group committed murders strictly in proportion to its share of the population, everyone would score 1.0.
Instead, the CPRC found one group stood far apart from the rest. Black males registered 8.3, White males were 1.2, and every other demographic group came in below 1.0. . . .
. . . We’re hitting record lows for violent crime. We’re safer than we’ve probably ever been in this country, and this is despite a lot of reasons why we probably shouldn’t be. Income disparity, racial tension, political upheaval, and anti-police animosity all would seem to create a recipe for violence, and while it has to some extent, it’s not spilling over into people’s everyday lives.
As Cam noted earlier this week, some are expecting the drop to be even greater for 2026.
In addition to what I noted above, something else to consider is that anti-gunners claimed that the Bruen decision would put more guns on the streets and that would lead to more violent confrontations.
Well…they were half right.
John Lott, head of the Crime Prevention Research Center, is one of the best people I know for pointing out interesting, important facts discovered through polling of American citizens. The original discoverer of the fact that more guns in lawful American hands leads to less crime, Lott has now reported on a few interesting — and in my mind, very important — nuggets from a recent CPRC poll conducted by McLaughlin & Associates. . . .
“In the survey, 15.7% carry all/most of the time, with another 15.2% carrying sometimes/rarely,” Lott reported. “The percent who carry all or most of the time increased from 13.0% in December 2024 to 13.2% in May 2026 to 15.7% in July 2026. But total percent who carry increased from 24.3% in December 2024 to 29.8% in May 2026 to 30.9% in July 2026. So, the total who are carrying increased by 5.5 percentage points (from 24.3% to 29.8%).” . . .
So yeah, it looks like the Bruen decision put more guns on the streets.
However, as the violent crime rate is historically low, it’s pretty clear the rest of their prediction was nonsense. It’s not a case of the rates being low in spite of the increase in concealed carry, either.
It’s because of it. . . .
Research done at the Crime Prevention Research Center (CPRC) and published in July of 2026 shows the percentage and number of people carrying concealed handguns continues to increase.
A survey of 1000 people conducted by McLaughlin & Associates on July 22, 2026 shows significant increases in the carrying of concealed handguns. In the last 19 months, from December of 2024 to July of 2026, the percentage of likely voters who carried all or most of the time increased from 13% to 15.7%, an increase of 2.7% of the sample. Those who carry sometimes/rarely increased from 11% to 15.2% or 4.2% of the sample. . . .
John Lott, head of the Crime Prevention Research Center, is one of the best people I know for pointing out interesting, important facts discovered through polling of American citizens. The original discoverer of the fact that more guns in lawful American hands leads to less crime, Lott has now reported on a few interesting — and in my mind, very important — nuggets from a recent CPRC poll conducted by McLaughlin & Associates.
The CPRC hired McLaughlin & Associates to survey 1,000 general election voters on July 22, 2026 (with the full topline results and detailed cross tabs available for readers who want to dig into the raw numbers). The survey builds on prior CPRC surveys conducted in December 2024 and May 2026, allowing the CPRC to track carry rate changes over a 19-month period.
“In the survey, 15.7% carry all/most of the time, with another 15.2% carrying sometimes/rarely,” Lott reported. “The percent who carry all or most of the time increased from 13.0% in December 2024 to 13.2% in May 2026 to 15.7% in July 2026. But total percent who carry increased from 24.3% in December 2024 to 29.8% in May 2026 to 30.9% in July 2026. So, the total who are carrying increased by 5.5 percentage points (from 24.3% to 29.8%).”
It might interest those who look at you like you’re crazy to carry a gun that nearly one-third of the respondents in the poll carry at least occasionally. One-third of the population represents a massive number of Americans, a sure sign that concealed carry is now mainstream, not on the fringe, as most in the gun-ban movement proclaim. This continues the long-term growth trend CPRC has documented in concealed carry permits, with 21.46 million active CCW permit holders as of 2024 — a figure that doesn’t even include those carrying under constitutional carry in the 29 states that allow permitless carry. . . .
All the training in the world won’t do much good, though, if you’re unarmed when somebody decides that it’s a good day to go out in a blaze of infamy. That’s why the roughly 30 percent of the population carrying firearms for self-defense is a nice start, but not the final word. It breaks down, according to the Crime Prevention Research Center (CPRC), into 13.2 percent who “carry all/most of the time” and 16.6 percent “carrying sometimes/rarely.” Those who carry intermittently will be able to respond when they are exercising their self-defense rights, but they’ll be as unprepared as those who never carry if an attack occurs on a day when they leave their guns at home. . . .
The Crime Prevention Research Center documented that armed citizens stopped 157 active shooter incidents between 2014 and 2022 – more than ten times what the FBI officially acknowledged.
The FBI reported 14. . . .
New research by John R. Lott, the head of the Crime Prevention Research Center indicates that “the worst 1% of counties (the worst 31 counties) have 20% of the population and 41% of the murders. The worst 2% of counties (63 counties) contain 30% of the population and 54% of the murders. The worst 5% of counties contain 46% of the population and account for 71% of murders. But even within those counties the murders are very heavily concentrated in small areas within those counties.”
In fact, it may come as a surprise that 53% of US counties experience zero murders in a typical year, while another 16% record only one murder. Taken as a whole, these 69% of counties account for a mere 3% of all murders nationwide.
Furthermore, the 31 counties with the highest murder rates – just 1% of all US counties – contain about 20% of the nation’s population but account for 41% of all murders. Expanding the analysis to the 63 highest-rate counties (2% of counties) captures 30% of the population but 54% of all murders. . . .
Robert Bridge, “America’s murder crisis not as hopeless as many believe,” RT, August 5, 2026.
New research by John R. Lott, the head of the Crime Prevention Research Centre, indicates that “the worst 1% of counties (the worst 31 counties) have 20% of the population and 41% of the murders. The worst 2% of counties (63 counties) contain 30% of the population and 54% of the murders. The worst 5% of counties contain 46% of the population and account for 71% of murders.
But even within those counties, the murders are very heavily concentrated in small areas within those counties.”
In fact, it may come as a surprise that 53% of US counties experience zero murders in a typical year, while another 16% record only one murder. Taken as a whole, these 69% of counties account for a mere 3% of all murders nationwide.
Furthermore, the 31 counties with the highest murder rates – just 1% of all US counties – contain about 20% of the nation’s population but account for 41% of all murders. Expanding the analysis to the 63 highest-rate counties (2% of counties) captures 30% of the population but 54% of all murders. . . .
Krugman and the Politics of Falling Crime
John R. Lott | August 11, 2026
Watch John debate whether guns reduce crime
Staff, “This Week: Death is the End… Or Is It?” Open to Debate, August 16, 2026.
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