UPDATE: Data directly from the Federal Police shows a different set of numbers (Original Post below). The number of CAC licenses in Brazil increased from 867,472 in 2022 to 1,026,633 in 2026 (see screenshots below), but those are internal government numbers that links aren’t available for. If those numbers are correct, that would imply a 18% increase. Yet, despite the reduction in the total number of guns that each person can have, the total number of registered guns increased from 2,862,948 in 2022 to 2,958,277 in 2026 — a 3.3% increase. During that same period the Brazil population increased by between 3.26 million (1.6%) and 10.5 million (5.2%) over the 203.08 million in 2022, so the increase in the number of people owning guns exceeds the grown in population by 3.5 to 11.5 times.
These numbers have a direct bearing on how gun ownership is related to changes in crime. There has been growing problems with hidden homicides in recent years. In 2024, Brazil recorded 81,873 missing persons, with some cases suspected to involve murders where bodies are concealed, but only 44,127 homicide victims. Some argue that declining homicide numbers could partly reflect bodies never being found or identified, especially with organized crime tactics (clandestine graves, burning bodies). In the eight years from 2015 to 2022, the average number of missing people was 73,288, but in the three years from 2023 to 2025 it averaged 82,817 (2023, 2024, and 2025) — a thirteen percent higher rate at the same time that the official homicide numbers have declined.
Given that the average number of homicides between 2015 and 2022 was 51,700 and the average number in 2023 to 2025 was 37,700, the gap between missing people and homicides in Brazil for 2015 to 2022 was 21,588 and from 2023 to 2025 was 45,118 — that is a 109% increase in the size of the gap.
Luciano Lara, a prosecutor in Brazil, provided a great deal of help in putting this together. He also pointed out to us that 91% of the murders in Brazil go unsolved.
2022
2026
ORIGINAL POST August 5, 2025: President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva didn’t do quite what he promised. Lula took office in January 2023 with the promise to radically change the gun control policies from Bolsonaro. While he reduced the number of new firearm licenses, so the growth rate in the number of licensed owners increased at a slower rate, it still increased. In 2022, there were 783,385 licensed firearm owners. Total active reached ~980,000 by mid-2025. But one thing that Lula did was reduce the number of guns that people could use for self-defense from four guns to two guns, though that change won’t prevent people from having a gun for self-defense. The CRAF licenses (Regular Civilian Owners (Posse for Defesa Pessoal)) last for 5 years. The CAC licenses (Caçadores / Atiradores / Colecionadores) for hunting (C açador), sports shooting (A tirador) and colecting (C olecionador) go from 3 to 10 years. All CAC owners have CRAFs (one per gun), but not all CRAF holders are CACs. So the number of licensed gun owners may start to decline in 2027 and 2028, but that hasn’t happened yet.
Some terminology for the licensing rules in Brazil.
CR – Certificate of Registration – a document obtained from the Army (now, since 2025, from the Federal Police) that allows a citizen to purchase firearms for Hunting, Sport Shooting, and Collecting activities.
CAC – a citizen who, having a CR, registers the activities of Hunter and/or Sport Shooter and/or Collector under that CR. It may be one, some, or all of these, but all are commonly referred to as CACs.
CRAF – Firearm Registration Certificate – the document registering the firearm in the owner’s name.
SINARM – National Firearms System, under the responsibility of the Federal Police, where all firearms in Brazil have been registered since 2003.
SIGMA – Military Firearms Management System, under the responsibility of the Army – where all restricted-use firearms in Brazil are registered, including those of security forces and CACs.
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