Remember Last Year When Democrats were Predicting that Trump was going to Increase Crime? Brennan Center warned: “Crime-Prevention Efforts Face Setbacks After Federal Cuts”

Feb 7, 2026 | Crime Statistics

Last year left-wing outfits such as the Brennan Center were predicting disaster from President Trump’s and congressional Republican’s policies. This write up from the Brennan Center was from last July, and with the data showing that murder rates likely fell to an all time low last year, their predictions haven’t aged well. The Brennan Center claims that violent crime has been falling since 2022, and claims that the Democrat policies have been a great success, but they are looking at the rate of crimes reported to police, not total crime. Total felony violent crime soared by 59% during the Biden administration, according to the Bureau of Justice Statistics and it was increasing even in the last year of his administration, 2024. The same numbers for 2025 won’t be released until September this year, but I am willing to bet that it will show that crime fell in 2025 and I will take a similar bet for 2026.

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The Trump administration’s recently passed budget bill massively increases money for immigration enforcement, based in part on the myth that immigrants are responsible for increases in violent crime. This is misguided on two fronts: There is no evidence that immigrants are responsible for trends in crime. And violent crime has been falling since around 2022.

But even as the administration defends its immigration crackdown in the name of public safety, the Department of Justice has quietly ceased funding real solutions that make communities safer, such as community violence prevention initiatives and partnerships between law enforcement and nonprofit organizations. It’s a retreat from longtime law enforcement priorities that upends proven, vital strategies that reduce crime.

The DOJ in April canceled $820 million in grants supporting more than 550 organizations across 48 states and territories working on issues such as violence prevention, victims’ services, and criminal justice research. These cuts were unexpected and unprecedented, marking a shocking break from the department’s long-standing support for state and local criminal justice work. Many of the cuts set back work on bipartisan policy priorities, such as assisting victims of crime, enhancing treatment for substance use and mental health, and improving reentry outcomes. These consequences are difficult to reconcile with the administration’s claim that it is prioritizing public safety. . .

Nicole Ndumele and Ames Grawert, “Crime-Prevention Efforts Face Setbacks After Federal Cuts,” Brennan Center, July, 2025.

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