UPDATE: Data directly from the Federal Police shows a different set of numbers. The number of CAC licenses in Brazil increased from 867,472 in 2022 to 1,026,633 in 2026 (see screenshots below), but those are internal government numbers that links aren’t available for. If those numbers are correct, that would imply a 18% increase. Yet, despite the reduction in the total number of guns that each person can have, the total number of registered guns increased from 2,862,948 in 2022 to 2,958,277 in 2026 — a 3.3% increase.
These numbers have a direct bearing on how gun ownership is related to changes in crime.
2022
2026
ORIGINAL POST August 5, 2025: President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva didn’t do quite what he promised. Lula took office in January 2023 with the promise to radically change the gun control policies from Bolsonaro. While he reduced the number of new firearm licenses, so the growth rate in the number of licensed owners increased at a slower rate, it still increased. In 2022, there were 783,385 licensed firearm owners. Total active reached ~980,000 by mid-2025. But one thing that Lula did was reduce the number of guns that people could use for self-defense from four guns to two guns, though that change won’t prevent people from having a gun for self-defense. The CRAF licenses (Regular Civilian Owners (Posse for Defesa Pessoal)) last for 5 years. The CAC licenses (Caçadores / Atiradores / Colecionadores) for hunting (C açador), sports shooting (A tirador) and colecting (C olecionador) go from 3 to 10 years. All CAC owners have CRAFs (one per gun), but not all CRAF holders are CACs. So the number of licensed gun owners may start to decline in 2027 and 2028, but that hasn’t happened yet.
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