Between 1998 and 2021, there were about 4.8 million denials for gun purchases. There were another 131,865 denials in 2022, 116,587 in 2023, and 110,505 in 2024. The total is about 5.1 million denials.
There is a lot of missing information on the number of prosecutions and convictions for these denials. ChatGPT estimates that there there is possible range of prosecutions from 600 to 1,000 and the number of convictions from 200 to 450 (see details below). If there were as many as 450 federal convictions for denials, that would be about 0.0088% of denials. Using the source denial numbers from the BJS survey from 2006 to 2010 where the yearly BJS reports provide specific data on cases referred for prosecution and conviction implies that 0.113% were referred for prosecution and that 0.028% resulted in a conviction.
Some of these cases may not be prosecuted because people may be making a mistake and the government might not view them as serious cases. For example, many convictions are seen as questionable when the prohibition stems from old, non-violent felonies or marijuana use (Schedule I drug, prohibiting possession even in legal states). But these cases will still be referred for possible prosecution even if the eventual decision is not to pursue them. Whether either referrals for prosecutions or convictions are used, the implied rate of error in denials is around 99.9% or higher.
Grok expert provided the following response:
Based on available government reports, the data on federal indictments/prosecutions and convictions resulting from NICS background check denials is not complete for all years since 1998. The available data covers 2006–2010, 2016, 2017, and 2022. For these years, the total number of federal indictments or prosecutions is 565, and the total number of convictions is 212.The actual totals since 1998 are likely higher but still relatively low, given the trend of decreasing numbers over time and the fact that most NICS denials do not lead to prosecution due to resource constraints, difficulty proving intent, and prioritization of more serious firearm cases. Complete yearly data for 1998–2005, 2011–2015, 2018–2021, and 2023–2025 is not publicly available in the reviewed sources.
Breakdown by YearThe table below shows the available yearly data. “Indictments/Prosecutions” refers to the number of charges that led to federal judicial action (e.g., indictments, informations, or complaints filed, excluding those declined by prosecutors). “Convictions” refers to guilty pleas or verdicts.
There were 77,233 denials in 2006, 73,992 in 2007, 78,906 in 2008, 71,010 in 2009, 76,142 in 2010, and 131,865 in 2022. That is a total of 509,148 denials with 203 guilty pleas or guilty verdicts — a rate of 0.04%. The later BJS survey provides a higher number of denials (721,000) so the rate of 203 guilty pleas or guilty verdicts would be a rate of 0.028%.
ChatGPT estimates “based on the published federal data we have, the documented floor is already ≈550 federal NICS-denial prosecutions and ≈100–150 convictions since 1998, and a reasonable reconstructed range is roughly:
- Prosecutions (federal NICS-denial cases, 1998–2023):
≈600 (very conservative lower bound) to ≈1,000 (plausible upper bound) - Convictions (federal):
≈200–450“
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