Take the case of Isaac Melendez-Carranza, an illegal alien from El Salvador, who was recently arrested for allegedly selling fentanyl to students at Park View High School in Loudoun County, Virginia. Investigators linked him to at least two student overdoses, though Narcan saved both students. A judge ordered Melendez-Carranza deported in July 2024. Federal immigration authorities encountered him the following month, during the Biden administration, but took no enforcement action against him.
The cost of getting a conviction are substantial.
If this illegal alien agrees to a plea bargain, the estimated total government costs for a case like this (Virginia state felony fentanyl distribution near a school in Loudoun County) range from roughly $50,000–$100,000+. If the charge proceeds to a full contested trial, the expected total government cost (trial process + Loudoun County jail time only while awaiting and during trial) is roughly $90,000–$150,000. Unfortunately, the State of Virginia is very unlikely to turn him over to ICE immediately upon conviction for early deportation in place of serving the criminal sentence, so the total cost of a contested trial and prison could be as high as $600,000+. Even a Plea bargain + short sentence (e.g., time served + 1–2 years prison/jail): could be as high as $150,000 total. The total legal costs for violent crimes such as aggravated assault, robbery, rape, and murder would be much higher. Some discussion on the numbers for those crimes is shown at the end.
Sources for those numbers.
Loudoun County jail costs (~$400+ per inmate per day vs. statewide average ~$150)
Virginia Compensation Board Jail Cost Reports show Loudoun consistently among the highest-cost local jails. FY 2023 operating cost at Loudoun County Jail reached $435.86 per inmate-day (statewide average $145.18). FY 2024 figures were similar: Loudoun operating cost about $406.75–$458 total per day versus a statewide operating average of $151.38. Northern Virginia jails as a group run well above the state average.
Virginia Department of Corrections prison costs (~$47,500 per inmate per year)
Official VADOC Management Information Summary reports list system-wide operating per-capita cost at $46,488 in FY 2024 and $47,555 in FY 2025. Earlier years were lower ($42,432 in FY 2022), so the ~$47,500 figure reflects recent data.
Court, prosecution, and staff time add thousands more (higher for a contested trial)
Virginia assesses a fixed felony fee of $375 plus additional items (jury costs $600–$1,000, drug-offender fee $150, court-appointed counsel reimbursement that can reach several hundred to over $1,000 depending on the charge and waivers, DNA/forensic fees, etc.). These are only the amounts billed to the defendant; prosecutor, judge, clerk, sheriff, and lab staff time are additional public costs. A full trial typically increases those personnel and jury expenses compared with a plea.
Fentanyl distribution near a school is a serious felony (5–40 years base plus enhancement)
Fentanyl is a Schedule II substance. Distribution or possession with intent (Va. Code § 18.2-248) carries 5–40 years on a first conviction. The school-zone statute (§ 18.2-255.2) is a separate felony punishable by 1–5 years (plus a fine up to $100,000) and can run consecutively. Multi-year terms are therefore common, which drives the higher end of the incarceration-cost ranges.
Virginia law allows ICE transfer near the end of a sentence but does not typically allow early deportation in lieu of serving the criminal sentence
Va. Code § 53.1-220.2 permits transfer of an inmate to ICE custody no more than five days before the scheduled release date (with credit for remaining days). § 53.1-220.1 allows ICE to take custody of certain serious felony offenders (including designated drug felonies) after required notifications and with state consent, but this occurs after the criminal sentence has been served or is near completion—not as a substitute for it. Early release solely for deportation is not the standard practice. These are public administrative and statutory sources rather than case-specific audits. Actual costs for any single defendant vary with sentence length, plea vs. trial, medical needs, and whether the person remains in local jail or is transferred to DOC. While that statute remains in effect under Virginia’s current governor is Abigail Spanberger, it is discretionary (“may” transfer custody upon an ICE detainer, no more than five days before scheduled release, with credit for remaining time). The governor’s changes have narrowed the surrounding cooperation, which can affect how often or how smoothly those transfers occur in practice.
From January 20, 2025, through July 31, 2026, a San Francisco Chronicle analysis of ICE records obtained by the University of California–affiliated Deportation Data Project estimates that there were a total of 564,000 arrests and claims that only 26% of those have had prior convictions. In an August 29th, 2026 post, the Department of Homeland Security claims that 70% of those arrested had pending charges or convictions. That would imply that 44% — or 248,000 — have pending charges but haven’t been convicted.
Now assume the government had to prosecute and convict all 248,000 illegal aliens arrests up through August 29th based on only charges for crimes—even if only for a drug offense—before it could deport them. At a minimum expense of $150,000 per case, prosecuting all 236,000 illegal aliens would cost taxpayers $37.2 billion. At $600,000 or more per case, the total cost would exceed $148.8 billion.
Here are rougher estimated costs for various violent crimes. Information on the Median arrest-to-adjudication time is available from the Bureau of Justice Statistics report Felony Defendants in Large Urban Counties, 2009 (Table 20) (but these figures include both released and detained defendants, so for those convicted this will underestimate the length of time). Some very rough federal information on estimated hearing/trail lengths U.S. Courts, Judicial Facts and Figures, Table 6.5 (but this doesn’t break it down by type of violent crime). More recent downloadable tables are available in Table T-2.
| Case and disposition | Estimated pretrial detention | Estimated hearing/trial length | Pretrial and adjudication | Incarceration | Approximate total |
| Aggravated assault plea + 5-year sentence | 2–5 months | Plea hearing: under 1 day | $50,000–$100,000 | $237,775 | $290,000–$340,000 |
| Aggravated assault trial + 10-year sentence | 4–8 months | 2–4 trial days | $125,000–$275,000 | $475,550 | $600,000–$751,000 |
| Aggravated assault trial + 20-year sentence | 4–8 months | 2–5 trial days | $125,000–$275,000 | $951,100 | $1.08–$1.23 million |
| Armed robbery plea + 5-year sentence | 2–5 months | Plea hearing: under 1 day | $50,000–$100,000 | $237,775 | $290,000–$340,000 |
| Armed robbery trial + 10-year sentence | 4–9 months | 3–5 trial days | $125,000–$300,000 | $475,550 | $600,000–$776,000 |
| Armed robbery trial + 20-year sentence | 4–9 months | 3–6 trial days | $125,000–$300,000 | $951,100 | $1.08–$1.25 million |
| Rape plea + 5-year sentence | 3–6 months | Plea hearing: under 1 day | $50,000–$125,000 | $237,775 | $290,000–$365,000 |
| Rape plea + 10-year sentence | 3–8 months | Plea hearing: under 1 day | $75,000–$150,000 | $475,550 | $551,000–$626,000 |
| Rape trial + 10-year sentence | 6–12 months | 4–8 trial days | $150,000–$350,000 | $475,550 | $626,000–$826,000 |
| Rape trial + 15-year sentence | 6–12 months | 4–10 trial days | $150,000–$350,000 | $713,325 | $865,000–$1.06 million |
| Rape trial + 20-year sentence | 6–12 months | 4–10 trial days | $150,000–$350,000 | $951,100 | $1.10–$1.30 million |
| Second-degree murder plea + 20-year sentence | 4–9 months | Plea hearing: under 1 day | $100,000–$200,000 | $951,100 | $1.05–$1.15 million |
| Second-degree murder trial + 20-year sentence | 9–18 months | 5–10 trial days | $200,000–$500,000 | $951,100 | $1.15–$1.45 million |
| First-degree murder trial + 30-year sentence | 9–18 months | 7–15 trial days | $250,000–$600,000 | $1,426,650 | $1.68–$2.03 million |
| Murder trial + 40-year sentence | 12–24 months | 7–20 trial days | $250,000–$700,000 | $1,902,200 | $2.15–$2.60 million |
| The incarceration column uses Virginia’s FY2025 cost of $47,555 per prisoner-year and Loudoun County jail costs of approximately $407–$458 per inmate-day. The estimates for prosecutors, public defenders, courts, juries, forensic work and other case-processing costs for the drug offense are used here. “Aggravated assault” refers here to Virginia’s malicious-wounding offense, and the robbery estimates refer to robbery involving a firearm, both Class 3 felonies punishable by five to 20 years. Virginia ordinarily requires the trial of a continuously detained felony defendant to begin within five months after a finding of probable cause or indictment. However, the clock excludes delays resulting from defense-requested or agreed continuances, competency evaluations, unavailable witnesses and several other circumstances. Complex rape and murder cases can therefore remain pending much longer than five months. The defendant remains detained throughout the pretrial period. The case involves one principal defendant and one primary incident. The trial does not end in a mistrial or require a retrial. The totals exclude police investigations conducted before arrest, appeals, post-release supervision, sex-offender monitoring and costs imposed on victims. Pretrial and adjudication costs include estimated prosecution, publicly funded defense when applicable, court operations, expert and evidentiary expenses, and pretrial detention. | |||||
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