New Research: Murders in US remain very concentrated in 2024, With the murders in worst 2% of counties remaining at their 2020 peaks

We have continued our reports on how very concentrated murders are in the United States. Our newest report is available here.

Abstract

The worst 1% of counties (the worst 31 counties) have 20% of the population and 41% of the murders. The worst 2% of counties (63 counties) contain 30% of the population and 54% of the murders. The worst 5% of counties contain 46% of the population and account for 71% of murders. But even within those counties, the murders are very heavily concentrated in small areas within those counties. By contrast, 53% of the counties have zero murders and another 16% have just one murder. These 69% of the counties account for only 3% of all murders in the country.

This concentration of murders remains near decade-long peak levels. Between 2010 and 2014, the share of murders occurring in the worst 5% of counties fell from 71% to 69%, but it then climbed to 73% in 2020 before easing back to 71% in 2024. Much of the increase was driven by the worst 1% and 2% of counties, whose shares of murders rose sharply between 2014 and 2020 and remained historically high in 2024, even though their shares of the U.S. population changed little over time.

John R Lott, Jr., “Murders in US remain very concentrated in 2024, With the murders in worst 2% of counties remaining at their 2020 peaks,” Social Science Research Network, June 20, 2026.

Here are the political leanings for the worst 1% of the counties (31 counties)

Strong Democratic Strongholds (21 Counties / Cities)

These areas are the most reliable Democratic strongholds in the country.

• Los Angeles, CA
• Cook, IL (Chicago)
• New York City, NY (All 5 boroughs combined)
• Philadelphia, PA
• Wayne, MI (Detroit)
• Baltimore City, MD
• Washington, DC
• Fulton, GA (Atlanta)
• St. Louis, MO
• Jackson, MO (Kansas City)
• Milwaukee, WI
• Jefferson, KY (Louisville)
• Cuyahoga, OH (Cleveland)
• DeKalb, GA (Atlanta metro)
• Alameda, CA (Oakland/Berkeley)
• Mecklenburg, NC (Charlotte)
• Prince George’s, MD
• Bernalillo, NM (Albuquerque)
• Shelby, TN (Memphis)
• Marion, IN (Indianapolis)
• Franklin, OH (Columbus)

Leaning Democratic (6 Counties)

• Harris, TX (Houston)
• Dallas, TX
• Bexar, TX (San Antonio)
• Allegheny, PA (Pittsburgh)
• Clark, NV (Las Vegas)
• San Bernardino, CA

Swing / Republican-Leaning (4 Counties)

• Maricopa, AZ (Phoenix): The ultimate national swing county; razor-thin margins.
• Miami-Dade, FL: Historically Democratic, but recently flipped heavily Republican due to shifting Hispanic voter trends.
• Tarrant, TX (Fort Worth): Traditionally one of the largest conservative urban counties in the country.
• Jefferson, AL (Birmingham): Highly competitive swing area with split local control.