New Research: Murders in US remain very concentrated in 2024, With the murders in worst 2% of counties remaining at their 2020 peaks

We have continued our reports on how very concentrated murders are in the United States. Our newest report is available here.

Abstract

The worst 1% of counties (the worst 31 counties) have 20% of the population and 41% of the murders. The worst 2% of counties (63 counties) contain 30% of the population and 54% of the murders. The worst 5% of counties contain 46% of the population and account for 71% of murders. But even within those counties, the murders are very heavily concentrated in small areas within those counties. By contrast, 53% of the counties have zero murders and another 16% have just one murder. These 69% of the counties account for only 3% of all murders in the country.

This concentration of murders remains near decade-long peak levels. Between 2010 and 2014, the share of murders occurring in the worst 5% of counties fell from 71% to 69%, but it then climbed to 73% in 2020 before easing back to 71% in 2024. Much of the increase was driven by the worst 1% and 2% of counties, whose shares of murders rose sharply between 2014 and 2020 and remained historically high in 2024, even though their shares of the U.S. population changed little over time.

John R Lott, Jr., “Murders in US remain very concentrated in 2024, With the murders in worst 2% of counties remaining at their 2020 peaks,” Social Science Research Network, June 20, 2026.