U.S. academic and crime analyst John Lott Jr. says more discussion is needed on how mass shooters plan their attacks, rather than just motivation and ideology, which typically receives the most media attention.
Lott Jr., founder of the Crime Prevention Research Center, was in Australia on a speaking tour last month following the Bondi Beach terror attack that targeted the Jewish celebration of Hanukkah and killed 15 people on Dec. 14. last year.
The response to Bondi has included tougher gun control, a national gun buyback scheme, and new anti-hate speech laws.
Yet Lott Jr. says the methods of mass shooters can be overlooked, even if they have a stark bearing on how governments should deal with such incidents.
“I’ve read literally dozens of diaries and manifestos from these mass murderers, many dozens,” he told The Epoch Times, noting he had interviewed hundreds of witnesses too.
“And you know, certain patterns occur very regularly,” Lott Jr. said.
“These monsters go and explain why they picked the targets that they did. It’s not random, and unfortunately, the media really ignores why these guys say they pick the targets.”
Lott Jr. says mass shooters tend to choose “easy” targets and areas where they can gain the most media attention, while avoiding being harmed themselves. . . .[Much more here]
The media tells us the proliferation of trans shooters is a phantom. They’re not the slightest danger to themselves or anyone else. White men are the real danger. Dr. John R. Lott of the Crime Prevention Research Center has found otherwise. . . . . [Long quote from Lott]
Lott is a careful researcher who often writes on gun issues. Anti-liberty/gun cracktivists hate him and disparage his research, but can’t reasonably attack his data and conclusions, because unlike his critics, he engages in real science and makes available his data sets and methods. Unlike Politico and others, he accounted for trans’ share of the population.
So, what portion of the population is trans?. . . . [Long quote from Lott]
Using a variety of sources, Lott concludes that trans comprise 0.73% of the population, and if Twenge’s study is taken into account—my assertion, not Lott’s—that number is likely currently smaller.
Using all available data, Lott concludes that trans commit mass shooting attacks at from 12 to 16.3 times their share of the population, an accurate and stunning conclusion. The 12 to 16.3 span is dependent on which years are sampled. Trans are also dangerously suicidal: . . . [Long quote from Lott]
The Crime Prevention Research Center’s analysis of FBI data found that rifles’ share of firearm murders was 4.8 percent before the 1994 assault weapons ban, 4.9 percent during it, and 3.6 percent after it expired. The ban made no measurable difference, which is what you’d expect when you’re legislating against a fraction of a fraction. . . .
Jay Rogers, “The Problem with Blaming the Gun,” American Thinker, March 8, 2026.
The Crime Prevention Research Center in 2025 estimated that over 19 percent of the Colorado population 21 or older holds a carry permit. A CHP is valid for five-years. . . .
The Crime Prevention Research Center in 2025 estimated that over 19 percent of the Colorado population 21 or older holds a carry permit. A CHP is valid for five-years. . . .
At the Crime Prevention Research Center, a slight drop in concealed carry permits has been occurring. This was attributed to the increase in Constitutional Carry (permitless carry), which is now up to 29 states. Such a drop could explain the decline in the number of background checks for firearms permits and permit rechecks. Permit and permit recheck volumes have fluctuated, complicating the correlation between NICS background checks and firearm sales. They are the major reason the NSSF adjusted NICS is a much better measure of firearm sales. The adjusted numbers exclude NICS background checks conducted for permits and permit rechecks. . . .
Research cited by the Crime Prevention Research Center (CPRC) also notes that defensive gun use often receives little media attention, even though armed citizens sometimes stop crimes before police arrive.
Data compiled by the Crime Prevention Research Center shows that concealed carry permit holders commit firearms-related violations at extremely low rates compared to the general population.
One CPRC analysis found that permit holders are convicted of firearm violations at about 1/12 the rate of police officers and roughly 1/240th the rate of the general public. . . .
“Chicago Homeowner Shoots Alleged Intruder During South Side Break-In,” Ammoland, March 9, 2026.
Meanwhile, in the final two years of the Obama presidency, 2015 and 2016, “ICE recorded 263 mistaken arrests, 54 mistaken detentions (book-ins), and four mistaken removals” (Crime Prevention Research Center, 1-22-26).
During 2015-2016, “ICE made a mere 239,645 arrests, meaning the 54 mistaken detentions alone produced an Obama error rate of 0.0225% — about one mistake for every 4,444 arrests….”
Furthermore, over the course of Obama-Biden administration, 2009-2016, “56 individuals died in ICE custody…. Roughly one death for every 14,314 detainees.”
Finally, “ICE under Obama deported two US citizens in fiscal year 2015, and two more in fiscal year 2016.” . . .
“Democrats play a part in deportation issue,” The Brookings Register (South Dakota), March 6, 2026.
A crime study from John Lott, founder and president of the Crime Prevention Research Center, and Carlisle E. Moody, professor of economics, emeritus with the College of William and Mary, indicates that armed citizens are better at stopping mass killers than the police.
This data runs counter to mainstream-news narratives.
Indeed, when concealed carry comes up in public debate, gun-control groups and the media members who repeat their talking points claim that we can’t trust everyday Americans with this constitutionally protected right. They say, if citizens can carry concealed guns, we’ll have “Wild West shootouts” on the streets. They also argue that armed citizens—people they presume are untrained—will shoot indiscriminately at a mass killer and thereby kill or wound innocents in the crossfire.
As these statistically rare crimes have occurred, however, these fears have not been realized. Indeed, though each time a constitutional-carry law is considered gun-control advocates have made these claims, none of the now 29 constitutional-carry states have put licensing regimes back in place. They have not done so because these things have not occurred.
Some key takeaways from this research paper include:
— Armed citizens reduce the number of victims wounded in active shooter incidents by 2.7-5.2 while the police have no significant effect.
— Armed citizens reduce the number of casualties by 5.6-8.8 while police response results in a small increase that is significantly different from zero at the .10 level in three out of four models.
— The number of victims killed, wounded, or the total number of casualties is significantly reduced if armed citizens stop the attack compared to the situation where the police stop the attack.
— With respect to unfortunate mishaps, Table 2 shows that armed citizens have shot the wrong person once while police officers have shot the wrong person four times, including friendly fire.
Lott and Moody hypothesize that armed citizens stop active murderers with fewer casualties than police because they have a tactical advantage. Uniformed police officers typically get a scene after a murderer has started shooting people. The responding officers can then be targeted because they stand out. In contrast, anyone could be an armed civilian. They blend in and are more likely to already be at the scene.
Many such murderers are even known to have avoided places where police officers are present—they look for soft targets.
“The 2012 Batman movie theater shooter scouted seven theaters within 20 minutes of his apartment that were showing the new Batman movie that night—and chose the only one that banned guns,” notes this paper. “In 2015, Charleston Church shooter … told a friend he initially planned to target a school but “couldn’t get into the school because of the security,’ so he ‘just settled for the church.’ Similarly, the Nashville Covenant School shooter had originally considered the Green Hills Mall as her primary target but rejected it because it had ‘too much security.’”
Many such murderers have committed suicide as soon as police arrived on the scene and police officers have stopped many others. Lott and Moody continually point out what a difficult job first responders have and that they often to do very brave things for the rest of us. The data, however, also shows that armed citizens can be a part of the solution to quickly stopping such sociopaths and terrorists. Many in the media simply won’t report this part of the story.
In sum, this research study determined that the “number of victims killed, wounded, or the total number of casualties is significantly reduced if armed citizens stop the attack compared to the situation where the police stop the attack.”
When I first sat down to write this, my intent was to present a clinical analysis of John Lott’s research and the statistical failure of the gun-free zone. But as the words hit the page, the data gave way to memories, and this piece transformed into something much more personal. It became a testament to why we founded FASTER Saves Lives (Faculty/Administrator Safety Training and Emergency Response)—a movement born out of a refusal to accept the status quo, but then thrust upon us by the horrific events of Sandy Hook.
I spent years traveling to dozens of late-night school board meetings, advocating for a solution to the “gun-free” death traps our children are forced to inhabit. I have sat in those sterile school boardrooms, looking into the eyes of policymakers, pleading for the “FASTER answer” to the helpless murder of our children. I remember looking into the eyes of a determined FASTER observer who, after witnessing the program’s impact, made the life-changing decision to take FASTER back to her own state to protect her own community. My direct involvement in those early training sessions is now a distant memory, but the impact remains etched in my mind. . . .
“Why “Gun-Free” Zones are a Gift to Killers – #2A,” Southern Nation, March 7, 2026.
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