Our new research paper is available to read here.
Abstract
In 2021 we wrote a short paper noting that truncating the sample when estimating the effect of right to carry laws on crime could be biased by comparisons to states that already adopted the law, instead of states without the law. In 2023 Bondy et al. criticized our paper but inaccurately described what we did and provided selective results. More importantly, they missed the point of our analysis, namely that applying two-way fixed effects to a truncated sample, say 1991-2018, biases the resulting RTC coefficient by invalidly comparing newly treated states to 11 previously treated states. The bias is so large that even if the true coefficient on the right-to-carry dummy is negative, the estimated coefficient could be positive. These biased results can be corrected by using new DID estimators, that do not make invalid comparisons, and which are robust to time and state heterogeneity. Using these new estimators, we find that RTC laws do not significantly increase total violent crime or any of its components, murder, rape, robbery or assault. We find evidence that RTC laws significantly reduce murder and that constitutional carry laws significantly reduce rape.
Carl Moody and John R. Lott, “Estimating the effect of concealed carry laws on murder: A response to Bondy, et al,” International Review of Law & Economics, 80 (2024).
I have no doubt criminals are less likely to victimize people if they think their target may be armed. I also know for a fact a dead criminal can no longer commit crimes.