New Research: Estimating the Effect of Concealed Carry Laws on Murder

Aug 13, 2023 | Original Research

Professor Carl Moody, the CPRC’s Research Director, and Dr. John Lott, the CPRC’s president, have a new study. The paper is available to download here.

Abstract

In response to our short paper in Academia Letters, Bondy et. al. published much longer response in this journal. We show that the Bondy et. al. criticisms are misleading and irrelevant. We present new estimates of the effect of right-to-carry and permit-less “constitutional carry” laws on the murder rate. We find that the traditional two-way fixed-effects analysis shows that right-to-carry laws have a negative but only marginally significant effect and that constitutional carry laws have an insignificantly negative effect. We also apply new difference-in-differences analyses to the same data and find that both laws have a negative but insignificant effect on murder. We conclude that, although the standard errors indicate that these coefficients are not precisely estimated, it cannot be claimed that either one of these laws significantly increases murder. 

Keywords: right-to-carry, constitutional carry, murder, two-way fixed-effects, difference-in-differences, event studies, forbidden comparisons

johnrlott

0 Comments

Categories

Archives

On The Vicki McKenna Show: To Discuss the Madison Police Shooting

On The Vicki McKenna Show: To Discuss the Madison Police Shooting

Dr. John Lott talked to Vicki McKenna on her statewide radio show in Wisconsin about the Madison police shooting of Corey Ruiz after he allegedly attacked officers with a knife. They also discussed our latest research examining murder patterns, including who murders...

Major Cities Chiefs Association reports drops in all violent crime categories for the first six month of the year for 66 of the 67 agencies participated in the survey: 17.2% drop in reported homicides, a 6.2% drop in reported rapes, a 16.6% drop in reported robberies, and a 5.7% drop in reported aggravated assaults.

Major Cities Chiefs Association reports drops in all violent crime categories for the first six month of the year for 66 of the 67 agencies participated in the survey: 17.2% drop in reported homicides, a 6.2% drop in reported rapes, a 16.6% drop in reported robberies, and a 5.7% drop in reported aggravated assaults.

A new report from the Major Cities Chiefs Association (MCCA) finds that reported violent crime declined across every category in the United States compared with 2025. The organization highlighted the broad decline as the first across-the-board drop since 2019, before...