New Research: Estimating the Effect of Concealed Carry Laws on Murder

Aug 13, 2023 | Original Research

Professor Carl Moody, the CPRC’s Research Director, and Dr. John Lott, the CPRC’s president, have a new study. The paper is available to download here.

Abstract

In response to our short paper in Academia Letters, Bondy et. al. published much longer response in this journal. We show that the Bondy et. al. criticisms are misleading and irrelevant. We present new estimates of the effect of right-to-carry and permit-less “constitutional carry” laws on the murder rate. We find that the traditional two-way fixed-effects analysis shows that right-to-carry laws have a negative but only marginally significant effect and that constitutional carry laws have an insignificantly negative effect. We also apply new difference-in-differences analyses to the same data and find that both laws have a negative but insignificant effect on murder. We conclude that, although the standard errors indicate that these coefficients are not precisely estimated, it cannot be claimed that either one of these laws significantly increases murder. 

Keywords: right-to-carry, constitutional carry, murder, two-way fixed-effects, difference-in-differences, event studies, forbidden comparisons

johnrlott

0 Comments

Categories

Archives

On The Vicki McKenna Show: To Discuss the Terror Threat

On The Vicki McKenna Show: To Discuss the Terror Threat

Dr. John Lott talked to Vicki McKenna on her statewide radio show in Wisconsin about his new op-ed at Real Clear Politics titled "The Terror Threat Americans Aren’t Supposed To Discuss." (Thursday, March 19, 2026) Vicki’s show covers most of Wisconsin and part of the...

On the Carl Jackson Show: To Discuss Voter Integrity

On the Carl Jackson Show: To Discuss Voter Integrity

https://youtu.be/oaq5EsC2L-s Dr. John Lott appeared on the Carl Jackson show to discuss the SAVE America Act and election integrity. Related material is available from a talk that Dr. Lott recently gave in Washington, DC. (Thursday, March 12, 2026)