UPDATED: CPRC’s Research on Vote Fraud in the News: Washington Times, Washington Examiner, NewsMax, and more

Apr 1, 2022 | Media Coverage

President Biden received hundreds of thousands of “excess” votes in Democratic-controlled areas in the 2020 election, according to an academic study on voter fraud that suggests the push to relax voting standards created new opportunities for electoral mischief.

John R. Lott Jr., the man behind the research, teased out those numbers by comparing Democratic-dominant areas to Republican-dominant places over the past two presidential elections, particularly in places where claims of election fraud were reported in 2020.

Looking at six swing states, the data he crunched found that voter turnout in Republican areas increased from 2016 to 2020 while voter turnout among Democrats dropped — except in places where voter fraud was claimed.

That accounted for 255,000 “excess” votes for Mr. Biden above what would be expected, Mr. Lott said. His paper has been accepted for publication in Public Choice, a peer-reviewed journal specializing in the intersection of economics and political science.

“More heavily Democratic counties actually had a slightly lower turnout in 2020, except for counties where vote fraud was alleged. In those counties, you had a huge increase in turnout,” Mr. Lott told The Washington Times in an interview explaining his findings.

“In some of those swing states, you had counties where vote fraud was alleged. In some of those swing states, you had counties where vote fraud wasn’t alleged. And yet you only had huge increases in turnout where vote fraud was alleged,” he said.

Taking another tack, Mr. Lott looked at specific voting precincts that touched each other but where one was inside a Republican-dominant county and the other inside a Democratic-leaning county where there were fraud accusations.

He found that in-person voting for the neighboring precincts was about the same, but absentee or mailed balloting tilted toward Democrats in the Democratic precincts.

Mr. Lott said there is no clear reason why absentee turnout alone should increase in just the Democratic jurisdiction, which suggests shenanigans were afoot.

“You’re comparing two tiny areas that are very homogenous, very similar to each other, across the street from each other, and the thing that differs from these two, for the absentee ballots, is where the ballots were counted,” the researcher said.

Mr. Lott runs the Crime Prevention Research Center and has been a major figure in gun and crime debates over the years. He served in the Justice Department’s office of legal policy at the end of the Trump administration, where he first conducted his election research.

His findings raise questions about the outcome of the 2020 election and about the path forward.

President Trump’s defenders filed dozens of cases alleging voter fraud in 2020, but they were generally dismissed by judges saying there wasn’t any concrete evidence of problems or, in some cases, no proof that mishaps were large enough to overturn the official count.

Actual specific instances of voter fraud have been prosecuted in past elections, including 2020, but they are isolated incidents. Voting rights advocates say the small numbers prove fraud isn’t an issue.

Mr. Lott said his numbers work to counter that sentiment, suggesting the level of mischief is significantly larger than the few cases formally brought before courts.

“Time after time, the news media keeps on saying there’s no evidence of vote fraud there. I think it’s at least a little bit harder for them to go and claim that,” Mr. Lott said.

William F. Shughart II, editor of Public Choice and professor at Utah State University, called the peer-reviewed paper “provocative.”

“By comparing differences in election results for 2020’s presidential candidates between in-person and mail-in ballots in matched samples of precincts in selected U.S. states, It offers a novel way of detecting ‘irregularities’ in postal voting,” he said in an email. . . . .

Stephen Dinan, “Biden got 255,000 ‘excess’ votes in fraud-tainted swing states in 2020, study finds,” The Washington Times, Monday, March 28, 2022

A new deep dive into discrepancies in the ballot counts of six key battleground states in the 2020 election has turned up more than 250,000 “excess votes” for President Joe Biden, and maybe far more.

The key point in the upcoming peer-reviewed study for the journal Public Choice by economist and noted gun expert John Lott Jr. is that the excess voting may challenge — or explain — Biden’s margin of victory over former President Donald Trump in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. . . .

Paul Bedard, “New report: 255,000 ‘excess votes’ for Biden in six key 2020 states,” Washington Examiner, March 28, 2022.

A new study on the 2020 presidential election found more than 250,000 “excess votes” for President Joe Biden, RealClearPolitics reports.

Crime Prevention Research Center President John Lott, a former senior adviser for research and statistics at the U.S. Department of Justice’s Office of Legal Policy, conducted the study.

“New research of mine is forthcoming in the peer-reviewed economics journal Public Choice, and it finds evidence of around 255,000 excess votes (possibly as many as 368,000) for Joe Biden in six swing states where [former President] Donald Trump lodged accusations of fraud,” Lott wrote in a Monday commentary for RealClearPolitics. . . .

Charlie McCarthy, “Study: 255,000 ‘Excess Votes’ for Biden in 6 Key 2020 States,” NewsMax, March 28, 2022.

At least 255,000 excess votes were cast in the 2020 presidential election across six battleground states, according to a new study that examined individual voting precincts. 

Economist John Lott, president of the Crime Research Prevention Center, is the author of the peer-reviewed study, which looked at precincts in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. 

The study, set to be published in the academic journal Public Choice, compares precincts where there were allegations of voter fraud to similar precincts in neighboring counties that had no fraud allegations. In each comparison, the two precincts examined fall on opposite sides of a county line—in some cases across the street. 

Precincts are county-level election subdivisions, usually with fewer than 1,000 voters. Precincts in counties with fraud allegations had significantly higher voter participation than adjacent precincts in counties without alleged fraud, the study found.

Fred Lucas, “Study Raises New Questions About 2020 Election Results in 6 States,” The Daily Signal, March 28, 2022

John Lott is a highly respected academic; an economist with an extensive background in statistical analysis.  In a peer-reviewed study, he has uncovered statistical evidence of upwards of 300,000 “excess votes” for Joe Biden in battleground states. In particular, in states that radically changed their absentee ballot laws in 2020 and were targeted by Mark Zuckerberg’s $400 million activist effort.

New research of mine is forthcoming in the peer-reviewed economics journal Public Choice, and it finds evidence of around 255,000 excess votes (possibly as many as 368,000) for Joe Biden in six swing states where Donald Trump lodged accusations of fraud. Biden only carried these states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – by a total of 313,253 votes. Excluding Michigan, the gap was 159,065.

“But” defenders of Brandon will argue. “Courts have already reviewed the 2020 elections and found no evidence of cheating.” That’s not quite what happened, though.

Courts have rejected challenges to the 2020 presidential vote, generally citing the lack of evidence that any alleged fraud would have altered the outcome in a particular state. The Republican plaintiffs argued that since their observers couldn’t watch the vote counts or were prevented from seeing other evidence, they couldn’t provide such proof without investigations backed by subpoena power. Still, while some judges have agreed that irregularities occurred in 2020, they weren’t willing to grant discovery in the absence of evidence that fraud could reverse the election results. Republicans thus faced a Catch-22 situation.

So, it’s not that courts found no evidence of fraud, it’s that courts refused to allow anybody to look for evidence of fraud. The position of the courts was, “You can only look for fraud after you’ve proven that it happened.”

Victor Tango Kilo, “Statistical Analysis Suggests 2020 Election May Not Have Been the Cleanest and Fairest in History,” Ricochet, March 29, 2022

John Lott has published a paper in which he applies three tests for voter fraud in the 2020 presidential election. (I wrote about Lott’s analysis while it was still a work in progress here.) The paper is here.

Lott begins by looking at adjacent precincts that are in different counties. He did this for Fulton County, Georgia and Allegheny County, Pennsylvania. The operative assumption is that precincts across the street from one another shouldn’t vote very differently (Lott controlled for demographic factors), suggesting that significant differences among the precincts relate to vote counting at the county level. This analysis found at least 10,000 extra votes for Biden in those two counties.

Next, Lott applies the same approach to provisional ballots in Allegheny County, where voters were illegally allowed to correct defects in absentee ballots by submitting provisional ballots on election day. Lott finds an extra 6,700 Biden votes because of this illegality.

Finally, Lott looks at voter turnout in counties where fraud has been alleged to see whether it was artificially higher than voter turnout in control counties in the same states. The analysis is complicated, but Lott finds an excess 255,000 Biden votes in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

There is, of course, a great deal of evidence of voter fraud in the 2020 election, as Lott reminds us in this paper: . . . .

John Hinderaker, “MORE EVIDENCE OF 2020 VOTER FRAUD,” Powerline Blog, MARCH 30, 2022.

John Lott is a highly respected academic; an economist with an extensive background in statistical analysis.  In a peer-reviewed study, he has uncovered statistical evidence of upwards of 300,000 “excess votes” for Joe Biden in battleground states. In particular, in states that radically changed their absentee ballot laws in 2020 and were targeted by Mark Zuckerberg’s $400 million activist effort.

New research of mine is forthcoming in the peer-reviewed economics journal Public Choice, and it finds evidence of around 255,000 excess votes (possibly as many as 368,000) for Joe Biden in six swing states where Donald Trump lodged accusations of fraud. Biden only carried these states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – by a total of 313,253 votes. Excluding Michigan, the gap was 159,065.

“But” defenders of Brandon will argue. “Courts have already reviewed the 2020 elections and found no evidence of cheating.” That’s not quite what happened, though.

Courts have rejected challenges to the 2020 presidential vote, generally citing the lack of evidence that any alleged fraud would have altered the outcome in a particular state. The Republican plaintiffs argued that since their observers couldn’t watch the vote counts or were prevented from seeing other evidence, they couldn’t provide such proof without investigations backed by subpoena power. Still, while some judges have agreed that irregularities occurred in 2020, they weren’t willing to grant discovery in the absence of evidence that fraud could reverse the election results. Republicans thus faced a Catch-22 situation.

So, it’s not that courts found no evidence of fraud, it’s that courts refused to allow anybody to look for evidence of fraud. The position of the courts was, “You can only look for fraud after you’ve proven that it happened.”

Now, a new study from John R. Lott reportedly shows how Biden received 255,000 excess ballots in key swing states. He doesn’t want this study used to challenge the 2020 results, though that’s exactly what’s going to happen. He merely wanted to show how easy it is to count invalid ballots. It’s a peer-reviewed study (via Washington Times): . . .

Matt Vespa, “Oh, So That’s How Many ‘Excess’ Votes Biden Received from Key Swing States,” Townhall, Mar 29, 2022

A new report by John Lott, Jr. at the journal Public Choices reveals Joe Biden received more than 250,000 excess votes for president in the 2020 election.

Lott says there were 255,000 excess votes and possibly as many as 368,000 for Biden in the key states.

Jim Hoft, “New Study by John Lott Jr. Reveals Biden Received More than 225,000 Excess Votes in 2020 Election,” Gateway Pundit, March 28, 2022.

A new study into 2020 election discrepancies in six battleground states claims that there were at least 250,000 “excess votes” for Joe Biden, and potentially many more.

The claim is made in a forthcoming peer-reviewed study conducted by economist and gun expert John Lott Jr. for the journal Public Choice. The study awaits final approval but it says that many as 368,000 excess votes in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin may have tipped the election to Joe Biden, according to Lott, who reported his findings at Real Clear Politics.

“Biden only carried these states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – by a total of 313,253 votes. Excluding Michigan, the gap was 159,065.”

Lott insists that the point of his work “isn’t to contest the 2020 election,” but rather to point out “that we have a real problem that needs to be dealt with.”

“Americans must have confidence in future elections,” he says.

Lott also blames some Trump allies, like Sidney Powell, for discrediting valid concerns about the integrity of the 2020 election by promising to “Release the Kraken” and then providing no evidence.

Lott, however, argues that he has the receipts. He reviewed voter registration rolls, in-person vote counts, absentee voting, and provisional ballots in various counties where fraud allegedly took place and compared them to like counties where these metrics should have been similar. Instead, he found statistically improbable differences, suggesting that fraud may have occurred.

“In 2016, there was no unexplained gap in absentee ballot counts. But 2020 was a different story,” Lott explained. “Just in Fulton County, Georgia, my test yielded an unexplained 17,000 votes – 32% more than Biden’s margin over Trump in the entire state.” . . .

MATT MARGOLIS, “Study Claims 255,000 ‘Excess Votes’ for Biden in Battleground States,” PJ Media, March 28, 2022

johnrlott

0 Comments

Archives

Two-thirds of Voters (except liberals, those who think the country is going in the right direction, and those who approve of Biden’s job) are Concerned that Fraud will affect the 2024 Presidential Election.

Two-thirds of Voters (except liberals, those who think the country is going in the right direction, and those who approve of Biden’s job) are Concerned that Fraud will affect the 2024 Presidential Election.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 66% of Likely U.S. voters are concerned that the outcome of the presidential election will be affected by cheating, including 40% who are Very Concerned. Thirty-one percent (31%) aren’t...