CPRC in the News: The New York Sun, Red State, Bearing Arms, American Liberty, and more

Oct 19, 2023 | Media Coverage

The president of the Crime Research Prevention Center, a Montana-based pro Second Amendment think tank, John Lott, tells the Sun that Ms. Luhan Grisham’s rationale for her order centers on a handful of recent road rage incidents in the state. There is, however, no evidence that the incidents involved people with permits to carry firearms, he says.

“Why ban permit holders from carrying when the attacks were not committed by them?,” Mr. Lott says. “Worse, permit holders have actually stopped recent road rage incidents in New Mexico.” . . .

Matthew Rice, “New Mexico Governor’s Firearms Ban Is Derided as a Coarse Gesture to the Constitution and Supreme Court,” New York Sun, September 10, 2023.

The Crime Prevention Resource Center (CPRC) has released the results of an extensive study of the FBI’s statistics on how often crimes are prevented by legally armed citizens. In a finding that should come as a surprise to no one, the CPRC has determined that the FBI has massively under-reported instances of defensive gun use by legal gun owners. My colleague Jeff Charles wrote about this a few weeks back, but let’s take a little deeper dive into the numbers.

You can find the CPRC’s raw numbers here.

The FBI’s numbers are available as well, for 2000-20132014-20152016-20172018201920202021, and 2022. So, feel free to do your own checking; that’s how science works.

In summary, here’s what the CPRC found as far as the FBI’s under-reporting:

— 2014 – active shooter incidents stopped by an armed citizen, FBI reported 20, CPRC determined 23, under-reported by 17.4%.

— 2015 – active shooter incidents stopped by an armed citizen, FBI reported 20, CPRC determined 25, under-reported by 24.0%.

— 2016 – active shooter incidents stopped by an armed citizen, FBI reported 20, CPRC determined 25, under-reported by 24.0%.

— 2017 – active shooter incidents stopped by an armed citizen, FBI reported 31, CPRC determined 36, under-reported by 25.0%.

— 2018 – active shooter incidents stopped by an armed citizen, FBI reported 30, CPRC determined 37, under-reported by 24.3%.

— 2019 – active shooter incidents stopped by an armed citizen, FBI reported 30, CPRC determined 41, under-reported by 29.3%.

— 2020 – active shooter incidents stopped by an armed citizen, FBI reported 40, CPRC determined 61, under-reported by 37.7%.

— 2021 – active shooter incidents stopped by an armed citizen, FBI reported 61, CPRC determined 112, under-reported by 49.1%.

— 2022 – active shooter incidents stopped by an armed citizen, FBI reported 50, CPRC determined 80, under-reported by 41.3%.

There’s a great deal more where that came from.

Look also at the broad trendline; the FBI’s under-reporting increases, almost yearly, the year 2022 being the only case in which the percentage of cases not correctly classified. While still the second-highest number in the study, it actually showed a significant decline from the year before.

The real concern raised by CPRC’s work, however, lies in the refusal of the FBI, when presented with the corrected estimates, to even review their own reporting practices: . . . [much more is available here]

Ward Clark, “Extensive Crime Study Reveals FBI’s Massive Under-Reporting of Defensive Gun Use by Legal Gun Owners,” Red State, October 18, 2023.

A new study by John Lott (CrimeResearch.org) and Carl Moody has found that concealed carry laws may reduce murder rates in the long run. The study, which was published in the journal Economic Inquiry, found that the effect of concealed carry laws on murder rates takes time to manifest but that it is negative and statistically significant in the following years. When you read “negative,” understand that means concealed carry is reducing the murder rate.

The study was conducted using a sample of all 50 states from 1970 to 2018. The researchers controlled for a variety of factors that could affect murder rates, such as the unemployment rate, the poverty rate, and the incarceration rate.

The researchers found that the effect of concealed carry laws on murder rates is heterogeneous. This means that the effect of these laws may vary depending on the state or the type of law. For example, the study found that constitutional carry laws, which allow people to carry guns without a permit, may have a larger effect on murder rates than right-to-carry laws, which require people to obtain a permit (aka permission slips) to carry guns. . . . [QUOTED FROM the STUDY]

The news study’s findings are important because they suggest that concealed carry laws, and in particular constitutional carry, may be an effective way to reduce murder rates.

As expected, the study by Lott and Moody has been criticized by anti-gun researchers, who argue that the findings are not statistically significant and that the study does not adequately control for other factors that could affect murder rates. For example, the controversial study by Bondy et al. found that concealed carry laws are actually associated with an increase in murder rates.

F Riehl, “Study Finds That Constitutional Carry Laws Reduce Murder Rates,” American Liberty, September 16, 2023.

Note that difference, though, between the total and those explicitly not in gun-free zones.

What we can take away from this is that the 41 percent overall rate is skewed upward to a fairly significant degree by the attacks that were stopped outside of gun-free zones.

And honestly, after the revelations about the FBI lately, the idea that they’d misclassify data and refuse to dig deeper is hardly surprising. In past years I’d simply chalk it up to laziness or figuring they had the whole story and not seeing a reason to go deeper, but since I can’t see anyone at the Department of Justice being remotely interested in anything that doesn’t push a progressive agenda, I’m no longer willing to just pretend it’s nothing.

To be clear, Lott’s research is on point, but it will be dismissed by anti-gun activists and the media. They’re diametrically opposed to anything that doesn’t advance the anti-gun agenda. They’ll use the FBI data without question simply because it’s more convenient. . . .

Tom Knighton, “Good guys with guns stopping mass shootings is no myth,” Bearing Arms, September 29, 2023.

John Lott and Carlisle E. Moody have authored a paper examining the effect of the Lautenberg Amendment prohibition on the possession of firearms by people subject to a domestic violence restraining order. The relevant statute is 18 U.S.C. § 922(g)(8). From the abstract:

We find that 18 U.S.C. § 922(g)(8) has no statistically significant beneficial impact on domestic murder, domestic femicide, domestic gun murder, or domestic gun femicide. 

Lott and Moody’s paper shows no policy advantages gained from the federal ban on the possession of firearms by people under a domestic violence restraining order. The ban fails to accomplish its stated goal of reducing intimate partner homicides. It fails to reduce even domestic femicides committed with guns. The findings of the research have been submitted to the Supreme Court as part of an Amicus brief for the United States v Rahimi case by the Crime Prevention Research Center.

The findings indicate exactly what some in the gun rights community long suspected. John Lott, Carlisle Moody, and the Crime Prevention Research Center have done the nation a significant service with this sophisticated analysis of 38 years of dense homicide data from the FBI Supplemental Homicide Reports (SHR). The data is available from 1976 – 2020. Bolstering and confirming the basic evidence from the SHR are detailed data on state-level domestic violence law and restraining orders. . . .

Dean Weingarten, “Domestic Murder Rates Unaffected by Gun Bans Linked to Restraining Orders,” Ammoland, October 8, 2023.

After dozens of warning signs and alerts from concerned citizens went unnoticed, a shooter walked into a South Florida high school and murdered 17 people. In the wake of the tragic mass shooting, guns and “gun-free zones” have become hot-button issues.

The Left has since turned up the volume on calls for a crackdown on Secondment Amendment rights, quickly exploiting teens who attend the targeted school to make the case for them. They have also slammed the suggestion that schools should have armed security, or perhaps well-trained, voluntarily armed teachers.

But what does the evidence say about “gun-free zones”?

According to the Crime Prevention Research Center, “gun-free zones” (areas where guns are prohibited) have been the target of more than 98% of all mass shootings. This staggering number is why such designated areas are often referred to as “soft targets,” meaning unprotected and vulnerable.

“According to the Crime Prevention Research Center, only a little more than 1% of mass public shootings since 1950 have occurred in places that were not considered to be a gun-free zone,” reports The Blaze. “In fact, as Crime Prevention Research Center President John Lott Jr. noted in October 2015, only two mass shootings in the U.S. since 1950 have occurred in an area where citizens were not prohibited from carrying a gun.” . . .

Attorneys of Freedom, “Most Mass Shootings Happen in Gun Free Zones,”

The FB says it happens but rarely, but John Lott shows it’s more like a third to half the cases, and 63% in areas where lawful carrying is allowed.

David Hardy, “Lott: how often do armed citizens stop mass shootings?” Of Arms & the Law, September 26, 2023.