CRPC Research Showing that most US murders occurred in 2% of Counties Covered by Fox News, Washington Times, and many others

27 Apr , 2017  

Fox News had a top of the front web page discussion on our new research on murders overwhelmingly taking place in just a tiny part of the US.  Many other publications from the Washington Times, Yahoo Finance, One News Now, and others ran similar stories.  Here is the story from Fox News:

The Crime Prevention Research Center (CPRC) said in a new report that there is a “geographical concentration” of murders, with 68 percent of killings occurring in just 5 percent of the nation’s counties. The homicides also tend to be concentrated to relatively small pockets of those counties, the report said.

“It is stunning how concentrated murders are in the U.S.,” John Lott, president of the CPRC said to Fox News. “And we show that even within these counties, with all these high rates, murders are very concentrated.”

“These high [rate] counties have very large areas where there are no murders.”

In 2014, the U.S. murder rate was 4.4 per 100,000 people, according to the data of the report. If the deadliest 5 percent of the counties were removed, the U.S. murder rate would be 2.56 per 100,000 people, the report showed.

More than half of last year’s murders occurred in only 2 percent of the nation’s counties.

Looking at the historical data, the CPRC said that murders were even more geographically concentrated in decades past. On average, 73 percent of counties in any given year had zero murders from 1977 to 2000.

Take for example Los Angeles County, which had 526 murders in 2014 — the most of any other county in the U.S. But parts of L.A. County, including Beverly Hills, Hawthorne and Van Nuys, had virtually no murders that year. . . .

“While many factors explain these concentrated murders, it is also striking that the counties with zero murders a . . .

CPRC’s recent report on the heavy concentration of US murders got this coverage in the Washington Times:

The murder rate may be rising in some U.S. cities, but slayings are still a localized phenomenon, with most U.S. counties not seeing a single murder in 2014.

The vast majority of homicides occurred in just 5 percent of counties, and even there the murders were localized, with some neighborhoods untouched by the violence, according to a new report released Tuesday by the Crime Prevention Research Center.

“I just think most people have a real misunderstanding about how heavily concentrated murders are,” said John R. Lott Jr., the author of the study. “You have over half the murders in the United States taking place in 2 percent of the counties.”

President Trump vowed in his inaugural address to end “American carnage” in the nation, especially in crime-ridden inner cities, and the report offers more data points that depict a distinct urban-rural divide in the U.S.

About 70 percent of the counties, accounting for 20 percent of the U.S. population, had no more than one murder in 2014, with 54 percent of counties experiencing zero murders, the report found. . . .

The rest of the article is available here.

Santa Barbara News-Press, Monday, May 1, 2017

The CPRC’s new study made the very top of the front page in the Santa Barbara News-Press.  If you click on the picture above, you can get a larger version to make it easier to read the story.

The Daily Wire, May 1, 2017

A new study shows that over half of murders in America take place in only 2% of the counties in the country.

The study, conducted by John Lott’s Crime Research Prevention Center, shows that 2% of America’s counties had 51% of the country’s murders in 2014; 5% of America’s counties had 68% of the country’s murders. According to Fox News, “If the deadliest 5 percent of the counties were removed, the U.S. murder rate would be 2.56 per 100,000 people.”

In fact, 54% of counties didn’t have a single murder, 69% had no more than one murder and 76% had no more than two murders, per the study.

When examining the counties that were responsible for the most murders in the country, the murders were concentrated in specific areas. For instance, most of the 2014 murders in Los Angeles County took place in areas like Compton and East Los Angeles. There were very few murders in areas like the San Fernando Valley. . . .

Lott told The American Spectator “that the counties that have zero murders have by far the highest gun ownership rates.”

“The gun ownership rates in those more rural parts of the country are about 111 percent higher than the gun ownership rates in the urban areas that have the highest murder rates,” Lott said. . . .

WIBC, May 3, 2017

In a new study by John R. Lott, Jr., Ph.D., President of the Crime Prevention Research Center, Marion County, Indiana was identified as being in the top one percent of all counties in the U.S. based on number of murders during 2014, the last year for which nationwide statistics are available at the county level.  In his study, entitled “The Geographical Concentration of Murders,” Lott found that Marion County, with 135 murders, had the dubious distinction of being among the top one percent of the deadliest counties in the nation.

According to the study, 54% of counties in the U.S. had zero murders, 69% had at most one murder, and 76% had at most two murders. Only the top four percent of counties had 16 or more murders and only the top one percent had 100 or more.  Los Angeles County, with 526 murders in 2014, had the most of any county.

The worst five percent of counties account for 68% of murders.  The worst two percent of counties alone account for the majority of murders – 51%.

The study also shows that population density is not the only factor in examining murder rates.  The worst one percent of counties contain 19% of the population and 37% of the murders. The worst 5% of counties (that account for 68% of murders) contain only 47% of the population.  In 2014, the murder rate for the entire U.S. was 4.4 murders per 100,000 people.  If the deadliest five percent of U.S. counties are excluded, the murder rate would decline to only 2.56 per 100,000 people.

In an interview with Fox News, Lott commented, “It is stunning how concentrated murders are in the U.S.  And we show that even within these counties, with all these high rates, murders are very concentrated.” With reference to Marion County specifically, his study notes that of the 135 murders that occurred in 2014, only four occurred outside of I-465. . . .

Breitbart, May 2, 2017

A Crime Prevention Research Center study looking at county-by-county data for 2014 shows that two percent of counties in the U.S. account for 51% of U.S. murders. . . .

One News Now, April 30, 2017

A new study reveals that nearly 70 percent of all the murders in the United States take place in 5 percent of the nation’s counties – and more than half of all homicides occur in just 2 percent of its counties.

According to statistics provided by the Crime Prevention Research Center(CPRC), more than half of the counties in America registered no murders at all in 2014.

“In 2014 – the most recent year that a county level breakdown is available – 54 percent of counties (with 11 percent of the population) have no murders,” CPRC reported. “Sixty-nine percent of counties have no more than one murder, and about 20 percent of the population. These counties account for only 4 percent of all murders in the country.”

Even though the number of murders in the overwhelming majority of America’s counties is extremely low today, the percentage of murders in most counties was even lower during the last quarter of the 20th century.

“From 1977 to 2000 – on average – 73 percent of counties in any given year had zero murders,” the researchers pointed out. “Possibly, this change is a result of the opioid epidemic’s spread to more rural areas.”

Concentration of murders

It was found that a substantial proportion of homicides in the U.S. occur in an extremely small number of counties.

“The worst 1 percent of counties have 19 percent of the population and 37 percent of the murders,” the nonprofit research organization divulged. “The worst 5 percent of counties contain 47 percent of the population and account for 68 percent of murders.” . . .

Yahoo Finance, April 28, 2017; 24/7 Wall St, April 28, 2017

Fifty-four percent of the counties in the United States had no murders committed in them in 2014, the most recent year for which the data are available. Just 2% of counties had more than half (51%) of all murders. And murders within these “dangerous” counties are concentrated in very small areas. The study reinforces observations from cities like Chicago that have extremely high murder rates but where most of the city is considered “safe.”

The information comes from the Crime Prevention Research Center and shows just how many of the nation’s murders occur in small sections of large cities. Measurements of the data show that small areas around Los Angeles, New York, Detroit and Chicago are particularly plagued by murders. Vast portions of the Central and Mountain states have almost none.

Specifically the Crime Prevention Research Center reported:

In 2014, the most recent year that a county level breakdown is available, 54% of counties (with 11% of the population) have no murders. 69% of counties have no more than one murder, and about 20% of the population. These counties account for only 4% of all murders in the country. . . .

If there is any lesson from the data, it is that for the murder rate to drop, it has to be sharply curtailed in areas that, even taken together, are a very small portion of the United States, geographically. . . .

Investigation Discovery, April 28, 2017;

Where do you live on the “Murder Map?”

The majority of murders in the U.S. take place in a tiny percentage of counties across the country, according to a new report.

The Crime Prevention Research Center (CPRC) said that there is a “geographical concentration” of murders, with 68 percent of killings occurring in just 5 percent of the nation’s counties. The highest numbers of murders were concentrated in higher-population areas around major cities like Chicago and Baltimore.

By contrast, around 70 percent of the counties, which accounted for 20 percent of the U.S. population, had no more than one murder in 2014 — and 54 percent of counties had zero murders. . . .

ZeroHedge, May 2, 2017

ZeroHedge republished (without permission) our entire article.

Space Coast Daily (Brevard County, Florida), May 8, 2017

The majority of murders in the U.S. take place in a tiny percentage of counties across the country, according to a new report.

The Crime Prevention Research Center (CPRC) said that there is a “geographical concentration” of murders, with 68 percent of killings occurring in just 5 percent of the nation’s counties.

The highest numbers of murders were concentrated in higher-population areas around major cities like Chicago and Baltimore.

By contrast, around 70 percent of the counties, which accounted for 20 percent of the U.S. population, had no more than one murder in 2014 — and 54 percent of counties had zero murders.

“It is stunning how concentrated murders are in the U.S.,” John Lott, president of the CPRC said to Fox News.

“And we show that even within these counties, with all these high rates, murders are very concentrated.”

He also added that, “These high (rate) counties have very large areas where there are no murders.” . . . .

 

The American Spectator (April 28, 2017) has this discussion:

People who hate gun violence should move to a community with a high rate of gun ownership.

That’s the counterintuitive takeaway of a new analysis of murder in the United States.

John Lott’s Crime Prevention Research Center looked at violence in the U.S. Most murders take place in two percent of counties. More than half of counties registered zero murders. Places with high gun ownership rates tended to boast few murders. Places with high murder rates tended toward low gun ownership rates.

“It just so happens that the counties that have zero murders have by far the highest gun ownership rates,” Lott explains to TheAmerican Spectator. “The gun ownership rates in those more rural parts of the country are about 111 percent higher than the gun ownership rates in the urban areas that have the highest murder rates.”

Surely other factors, such as population density, demographics (particularly age and sex), and economics, impact murder rates. But whether local laws and customs favor or frown upon private ownership of guns looks like a clear influence, too.

The findings reinforce the thesis of Lott’s nearly 20-year-old book, More Guns, Less Crime: Understanding Crime and Gun Control. . . .

Libertarian Newscast, May 2, 2017

The study shows that “54% of counties (with 11% of the population) have no murders” while “69% of counties have no more than one murder.” Taken together these counties, which represent about 31% of the U.S. population, “account for only 4% of all murders in the country.”

However, CPRC shows that two percent of U.S. counties–led by Los Angeles County–account for 51% of all murders. And “the worst 5% of counties contain 47% of the population and account for 68% of murders.” . . .

WISN, May 2, 2017

TODAY, there was a VERY INTERESTING ARTICLE on Zero Hedge citing a shocking statistic that 51% of US murders are committed in 2% of US counties.  Here’s the “murder map” from the article.  RED/PINK is where the homicides are; WHITE is considered “safe”:

50,000 Watt WCBM Radio also carried this story, April 26, 2017.

New American, May 4, 2017; Before It’s News, May 5, 2017

In 2014, the latest year for which sufficient data is available, half of all murders in the United States took place in just 63 U.S. counties — two percent of the 3,144 counties in the country. Two-thirds of all murders that year happened in 157 counties — five percent. On the other hand, according to John Lott, the author of the study by his Crime Prevention Research Center, more than half had no murders at all.

This disproportionality has skewed the statistics. Anti-gun politicians often use the United States’ overall violent crime rate as an excuse to impose more gun laws on the populace. But when the worst five percent of U.S. counties are removed from the equation, the nation’s overall murder rate of 4.4 per 100,000 people drops to 2.56.

Lott noted further in his study that urban areas that have low gun ownership among the citizenry “experience much higher murder rates” while “so much of the country has … very high gun ownership rates and zero murders.” He concluded: “Murder isn’t a nationwide problem. It’s a problem in a very small set of urban areas.” . . .

See also the Wentworth Report, Shot in the Dark (Politics and Current Events in Minnesota),

An article that is critical of our work can be found at Oxygen (May 1, 2017).


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